Accounts of the qualification to the next stage, this is how Albania passes the "hell" group

calculation of the qualification in the next phase, this is how Albania passes the group of hell

In the 3rd round of group matches, calculations are made with a pencil in hand, where the qualification depends on many combinations, not only on what a team achieves on the field, but also on the matches of rivals, or teams from other groups.AlbaniaHowever, some things are clear and in the red and black camp they know well what they have to do this evening. If they beat Spain, who secured the first place with 2 wins, Albania goes to the quota of 4 points and thus has a good chance to continue the German adventure, at least as one of the four best third teams. It would be a historic achievement for Albania, if it were to pass the group in its second European participation.

All the more knowing what rivals the red and black have in their group at "Euro 2024", Spain and Italy, European and World champions, or Croatia, which has written history in recent years. But a possible victory today against Spain could also take the Albanian National Team to the 2nd place, depending on the result of the other group match between Italy and Croatia, who are also in the game for the qualification. The Reds currently hold third place in the group, with 1 point and thanks to a better goal difference than bottom-placed Croatia.


According to statistics experts, with the current situation of the groups, 4 points are enough to continue, especially when you don't have a negative goal average. There is also a variant, which qualifies Albania even with a draw against Spain. If the Reds and Blacks get 1 point against the Iberians today and Croatia does not win against Italy, our National Team would take third place in the group with a better goal difference than Croatia. In this case the qualification would depend on the results of groups A, C and F, where special scenarios must be fulfilled in at least two of them to make the red and black dream come true. In Group A, the match between Scotland and Hungary was supposed to end in a draw, but Hungary won. In Group C, England must beat Slovenia and the Denmark-Serbia match does not end in a draw, while in Group F, the Czech Republic and Georgia must not win their respective matches. Beyond these combinations, Albania must have a better goal difference than the team that comes third in at least 2 of these 3 groups.


Albania has a real chance of qualifying in the direct elimination phase of "Euro 2024", but statistics experts see it as unlikely that Silvinho's team will pass the group. Through 20 computer simulations of the results, the "Football Meets Data" experts have determined the percentages of the Rossoneri to be positioned in one place or another in the group. According to them, Albania has only a 2% chance of coming second in the group after the third matches to be played today. Computer simulations give Albania a 36% chance of finishing third, while there is a 62% chance of finishing fourth. In total, experts estimate that Albania has only an 8% chance of qualifying for the competition's top 16 teams.


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