Some 48 million French voters will be asked to choose who will govern the country for the next five years.
Never before in the history of the Fifth Republic – founded by Charles de Gaulle in 1958 – have presidential elections been held in such a dramatic and volatile context, aljazeera reports.
After two years of a once-in-a-century pandemic, the climate emergency and now the war in Ukraine — the first invasion on European soil since the end of World War II — voters will have to decide whether to give the president, Emmanuel Macron a second chance or change course in a more radical way.
When are the elections?
Elections in France are held on Sundays. The first round of this year's presidential elections will be held on April 10. The two top candidates will face each other in a second round on April 24.
Who are the candidates?
To be allowed to run for president, candidates must receive 500 signatures from about 42 elected officials.
The signatures had to be certified by the Constitutional Council - the Supreme Court of France - by 4 March.
Twelve candidates managed to collect enough of them to qualify:
Nathalie Arthaud (Lutte Ouvrière - anti-capitalist)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (Debout la France - right)
Yannick Jadot (Europe Ecology Les Verts - green)
Anne Hidalgo (Socialist-Socialist Party)
Jean Lassalle (Resistors - independent)
Marine Le Pen (Rassemblement National - far right)
Emmanuel Macron (La République en Marche - centrist)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon (Popular Union - radical left)
Valérie Pécresse (The Republicans - conservative)
Philippe Poutou (New Anti-Capitalist Party - anti-capitalist)
Fabien Roussel (French Communist Party - communist)
Eric Zemmour (Reconquête - far right)
What are the main issues?
Until Russia's February 24 invasion of Ukraine, there was a general feeling among voters that the candidates weren't talking about the issues they cared about most — purchasing power and the high cost of living, health care and the fight against climate change.
Instead, much of the debate focused on divisions within the left, the levels of inheritance tax (less than 25 percent of French taxpayers owe it) and the names people should give their children.
"The war in Ukraine has put in the center of the debate what the candidates propose when it comes to vital issues," said Laure Cometti, a journalist with political experience, Telegrafi reports.
"They have had to talk about how they will cut the dependence of France and the European Union on Russian energy and food supplies - which raises the question of how to decarbonise the economy - as well as how to defend the country, potentially through an army of EU", she added.
What do the polls say?
For months, every poll has predicted that Macron will face far-right Marine Le Pen in the second round on April 24. The latest revelation says otherwise.
Cevipof – the center for political research of Sciences Po Paris – has carried out the most comprehensive study of the electorate thanks to a sample group of 13,749 strong.
In previous elections, the margins of error have proven to be very small, less than 1 percent, hence its reliability.
The latest opinion poll (PDF), conducted between March 10 and 14, predicted the following distribution of votes.
In the event of a runoff between Macron and Le Pen, the incumbent would beat her far-right challenger 59 percent to 41 percent, a much narrower margin than in 2017, when he beat him 66 percent to 34 percent.
Macron on the rise
Emmanuel Macron has led the polls for years, with a stable base of 24-25 percent of the electorate planning to vote for him in the first round. An unusually high score for a sitting French president.
"Emmanuel Macron, thanks to the pro-European and progressive message, has managed to secure voters from the center-left who voted for the Socialist Party. Economically, he has implemented pro-business policies to lure voters from the right," said Hugo Drochon, professor of political theory at the University of Nottingham.
"Consequently, a new division has emerged between the center and the extremes. This hurts the traditional parties both on the left and on the right," he said.
Hence the historically low polling of conservative Pecresse and socialist Hidalgo, who struggle to reinvent their parties' messages in light of climate change, digitalization and globalization.
The French president, who also chairs the European Council since January, is benefiting politically from the war in Ukraine: the famous "rallying around the flag effect". He now has 29 percent, an increase of five points in about a month.
None of the other candidates are considered qualified enough to do a better job than him, with 61 percent of voters trusting the 44-year-old leader to make the right decisions when it comes to the war in Ukraine.
He is increasingly seen as a protective figure in uncertain times, and his longstanding pro-EU message resonates even more strongly these days as 32 percent of voters say the war in Ukraine will influence their choice.
"The current context plays in Macron's favor," Cometti said and added. "People have credited him for handling the pandemic and all the money he poured into the economy to keep it afloat, no matter the cost. He benefits from being already in charge and people know he can manage a crisis."
Displacement dynamics
Le Pen, the historic figure of the extreme right who is running for a third time, appears to be Macron's most serious challenger once again.
Although polls have consistently shown over the years that the French do not want to see a rerun of the 2017 election, this is the menu they are likely to be served.
Her consistent message of purchasing power — the number one concern for voters this year, made all the more important by the fallout from the war in Ukraine — appears to be working, especially among the working class.
She now also benefits from the candidacy of populist Eric Zemmour, after he posed a very serious threat to her last year, when the polls had her ahead of her last November.
But Zemmour's anger against Muslims, women and immigrants has made her seem like a more reasonable candidate, even though they share similar views and ideas, writes tg.
And the former journalist's long-held admiration for Russia's Vladimir Putin has also cost him recently.
"Dramatic events like wars weaken candidacies that have little political capital. Zemmour is a newcomer to politics and he made a terrible mistake by saying he would not accept Ukrainian refugees. It made him look callous," said Bruno Cautrès, a political researcher at Sciences Po Paris.
The last hope of the left
Seen by many as the last hope of the left camp, Jean-Luc Melenchon defines himself as an "electoral turtle".
Currently at about 12 percent, he has seen a surge in the polls recently and hopes to make the same move as in 2017, when he went from 14 percent to 19 percent in the final weeks of the campaign.
But this time, he is facing multiple left-wing candidates that will likely prevent him from qualifying for the second round.
Hence the message he issued "I am the efficient vote of the left".
On March 20, he gathered tens of thousands of his supporters in Paris' Place Bastille for a "march for the 6th Republic", one of his main proposals to change the political system.
It was the largest campaign rally to date. But will it be enough to convince enough green, socialist and communist voters?
"Voting intentions have almost crystallized. However, the threshold to qualify for the second round is extremely low this year, around 16 percent. This means that candidates like Zemmour, Mélenchon or Pécresse still have a chance," said Bruno Cautrès, who conducted the Cevipof study.
"But only one of them has momentum in the final phase of the campaign, and that is Jean-Luc Mélenchon," he said.
However, one element can derail predictions: abstention. It seems that it will be stronger this year than in all previous elections.
"There is a shared sense of horror with what is happening in Ukraine. After the yellow vest crisis of 2018-2019, two years of pandemics, the climate emergency and now a war in Europe, people are tired and feel like it's all fading into one big never-ending crisis. This could explain why abstention is likely to be higher this time around … and potentially leave room for a surprise,” Cautres concluded.
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