13:28 05/06/2022
Is there a chance for a ceasefire? Putin's focus is currently on eastern Ukraine. According to analysts, Russia can stop the fighting only if it completely takes over the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.
There is no agreement in the West about what are the goals of the war and what should be pursued. Nor for the other question, by what means this war would end. In Germany, the dominant opinion is that the conflict can be resolved politically. Therefore, the negotiation option is always mentioned as an alternative.
In fact, Russia and consequently Ukraine have decided to end this war depending on the use of military weapons. Russian war aims leave no room here for political compromises.
Military logic currently rules
Thus, a political solution to the conflict would be discussed only when the military dimension was established in the battle of the war. If the fighting continues without territorial gains and governments have to pay a high political price for the war, then there may be a chance that the war aims will be declared achieved and at least a temporary ceasefire established. This would bring about a territorial status quo. Reaching a peace agreement seems unlikely, due to a series of unresolved issues such as Crimea or the so-called Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, which Russia recognized as independent.
Regaining territories difficult
It seems highly unrealistic for Ukraine to regain all the territories lost since 2014, not even those lost by February 2022. But fortunately, it is equally unrealistic for Russia to triumph over all of Ukraine. Without a broad mobilization, Russia does not have sufficient infantry forces to continue its intensified offensive beyond the summer months. Russia's smallest territorial objective is to occupy all the regions around Donetsk and Luhansk. Moscow is even obliged to achieve this objective because it recognized their independence as a people's republic. But in other territories, parts of Kharkiv, Saporishja, etc., Russia can differentiate and be flexible.
The Russian invasions will not advance
Russia has almost conquered the entire region of Luhansk and will continue fighting to take part of Donetsk as well. But after that the Russian army is worn out. Any other strategic offensive such as against Odesa could be excluded. So after the end of the battle in Donbas, Moscow will also have an interest in trying some form of de-escalation of the conflict. But by then, the Ukrainian military will have been hit hard, the infrastructure will have been destroyed, the society will be tired and the economy will be dependent on Western aid.
This could be a moment, when a cease-fire could be reached, that would rest largely on a territorial status quo. True, Ukraine will not recognize the loss of territories, but a temporary rise may be possible. Temporary in the sense that everything will depend on how the future developments in the Kremlin will be. A post-Putin Russian leadership would be faced with a decision if it is worth controlling parts of the Kherson, Kharkiv Saporisha regions enough to endure years of sanctions.
Added to these possible developments is the possibility of ongoing conflict at smaller levels. Ukraine could try to wear down the Russian invaders through continuous attacks and thus make possible the return of the occupied territories.
Other alternatives very little possible
Major changes would be possible, only if the Russian president is forced to hand over the post for a short period of time. A successor would have more leeway, and perhaps other interests.
Or indeed Russia really declares a state of war and quickly mobilizes many soldiers to send to the front. Russia would thus be able to take much more Ukrainian territory than at present, but at a very high price in human lives. And this alternative would be very badly received in Russian society./DW
